MbShea@PWP@English@UMCP

ABSTRACT:
***Note: I figured that because I am writing for the CWG primarily, I would direct the abstract toward that audience. The style is more formal and the abstract is written in 3rd person.

Far more people than the trained forecaster care about a weather prediction. It is easy for any weather enthusiast to extrapolate from a formal forecast, and this poses an ethical dilemma when amateurs take forecast suggestions more (or less) seriously than they should. An example is the winter forecast—the weather quality of an entire season is predicted, and carries with it a degree of uncertainty. The writer focuses on the roles that atmospheric oscillations—particularly the ENSO and NAO—have in determining a winter season. The NAO directs storm tracks over the mid-latitudes, and the ENSO generally enhances precipitation in the same region. The notorious snowstorms of 2009/10 have been linked to concurring NINO3 and NAO- events that season, the NAO- contributing to the storms more heavily. Advancements in predicting the NAO and ENSO will allow for more accurate and dependable mid-latitude winter predictions in the future.

WC: 146

READER’S PROFILE:
This is a reader who believes that winter predictions are less unreliable than I am making them out to be.

READER’S RESPONSE: Last year’s winter prediction was pretty good. I expected a lot of rain storms and that was the case for the entire month of December. We also had an unprecedented El Niño this season. Historically, most strong El Niños made for warmer temperatures in the region—and that’s common knowledge—so we all expected the season to be warmer than normal, and it was. I don’t think it’s complicated enough that I can’t expect much out of a winter prediction—clearly they can be reliable. Your article describes how one could have accurately predicted the type of winter we saw in 2009/10. As an interested reader, I would bet my money on the Capital Weather Gang’s winter prediction this next year, and tell others about it, especially if there are strong El Niño and NAO events.

M -- can we have an El Nino next year? Highly unlikely, right? So, then tell us a bit about what the La Nina years are like? For us in the East, does that mean that polar activity and NA Jet stream are more important?

Citation: for the formal piece, APA citation. Fo the sample blog post, use natural language/signal phrase citation AND you can highlight the words that you would hyperlink to other places for fuller definition/example.